Stress category

Conflict

87
Critical▼ 2 this week

Wars, military escalation, terrorism, arms races, blockades, and threats of force

High for it. Over the last 90 days it ran from 73 to 90, usually 79 to 87.

Normal range (79 to 87)Before 24 Oct, rebuilt from score history

152Active events
6Running fronts
24Decisions in 30 days
5Went quiet in 90 days
Potential, next 14 days81 to 97
Likely steady
0100

Based on the event and decision trends we have: flat over the last two weeks; 24 decisions due on its events in 14 days (7 high stakes, 3 on a scheduled date). A range of what is possible, not a forecast.

What moved it since 26 Oct
Where it is feltshare of the weight
  • Iran13%
  • Ukraine10%
  • United Arab Emirates9%
  • Russia9%
  • Egypt9%
  • Poland8%
  • Saudi Arabia8%
  • Israel6%

By the perspectives each event is read from.

The fronts

6 running, 99 of 152 events

Yemen civil war

31 active events, 52 earlier in 90 days · updated 2h ago

31% of the weight

Russia-Ukraine war

38 active events, 147 earlier in 90 days · updated 10h ago

31% of the weight

Hezbollah-Israel conflict

9 active events, 39 earlier in 90 days · updated 10h ago

8% of the weight

Strait of Hormuz conflict

6 active events, 66 earlier in 90 days · updated 19h ago

6% of the weight

Sudan civil war

10 active events, 25 earlier in 90 days · updated yesterday

4% of the weight

Israel-Syria tensions

5 active events, 13 earlier in 90 days · updated yesterday

3% of the weight

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Decisions ahead24 in 30 days

Dates are estimates unless scheduled. More on Ahead.

Other situations

5 events
Went quietlast 90 days