NBS releases October PMI showing manufacturing back below 50
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What happened
The National Bureau of Statistics published October PMI data showing official manufacturing PMI at 49.3 after 50.1 in September, while non-manufacturing activity also softened. Caixin's same-day reporting said both supply and demand moved from expansion to contraction in October.
Why it matters
A sub-50 manufacturing PMI is an early monthly signal that factory activity, orders, and hiring conditions weakened at the start of the fourth quarter. The combination of weaker manufacturing and softer non-manufacturing activity can feed into market expectations for additional fiscal support, credit easing, or targeted measures for employment and property-related demand.
China's National Bureau of Statistics released October PMI data on October 31 showing the official manufacturing PMI at 49.3, down 0.8 points from September and back in contraction territory. The same-day readout also showed weaker non-manufacturing activity, while the Caixin interpretation highlighted both supply and demand turning from expansion to contraction. The release is a fresh macro signal for near-term growth, labor demand, and the calibration of stabilization measures heading into November.
Watch for
People's Bank of China daily open-market operation notices on 2026-11-02 and 2026-11-03 for a larger net liquidity injection than the prior week National Development and Reform Commission notice by 2026-11-03 on accelerating project approvals or front-loading infrastructure implementation Ministry of Finance or State Council policy release by 2026-11-03 announcing new consumption, trade-in, or local-government funding support China bond and rates market data on 2026-11-02 showing a decline in 10-year CGB yields or a notable rally in policy bank bonds after the PMI release
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