NBU says late-October hryvnia pressure rose as budget spending increased and FX supply weakened
Published · Updated
What happened
NBU Deputy Governor Yurii Heletii said at a briefing that higher budget spending and lower foreign-currency supply from agriculture and metallurgy increased pressure on the hryvnia market at the end of October.
Why it matters
The statement indicates that the central bank is facing stronger demand-supply imbalance in the FX market from two channels at once: public spending and weaker export proceeds. That can require higher FX intervention by the NBU and can feed into prices if exchange-rate pressure persists.
At a briefing reported in the past 24 hours, NBU Deputy Governor Yurii Heletii said pressure on the hryvnia market intensified at the end of October because budget spending increased while hard-currency supply from agriculture and metallurgy fell. The statement ties exchange-market strain to fiscal outlays and to weaker export-linked FX inflows from sectors affected by wartime damage and logistics disruption. For macro policy, this is a current-operating signal on intervention demand, exchange-rate management, and the narrowing buffer against renewed inflation pass-through.
Watch for
National Bank of Ukraine publication of next foreign-currency intervention data showing whether net sales rise on 2026-10-31 or 2026-11-02 Ministry of Finance of Ukraine disclosure of domestic borrowing or budget-cash operations on 2026-10-31 that would signal heavier near-term hryvnia liquidity injection National Bank of Ukraine official exchange-rate and interbank market release on 2026-10-31 showing wider depreciation or spread versus recent sessions State Customs Service of Ukraine or Ministry of Agrarian Policy release in the next 72 hours showing lower grain or metals export volumes/value versus the prior reporting window
Sources
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