IDEAM raises probability of a very strong El Niño in late 2026 and early 2027
Published · Updated
What happened
IDEAM issued an updated warning on El Niño and increased to 75% the probability that the episode becomes among the most intense in decades, while placing the probability above 90% for a very strong event in late 2026 and early 2027.
Why it matters
An official forecast revision from the national meteorological authority can trigger changes in contingency planning for reservoirs, power supply, crop management, and fire prevention. Because Colombia relies heavily on hydropower and climate-sensitive agriculture, a stronger El Niño outlook can alter public-sector and private-sector operating plans before physical shortages appear.
IDEAM updated its national climate warning and said the probability that El Niño becomes one of the most intense episodes in decades has risen to 75%, with a probability above 90% of a very strong event in late 2026 and early 2027. The update is a discrete official trigger within the last 24 hours and moves the issue from seasonal monitoring toward near-term preparedness planning. For Colombia, the warning is directly tied to water management, hydropower reliability, wildfire exposure, and agricultural stress while the state is already under fiscal and operational pressure from reconstruction demands.
Watch for
IDEAM publication on or after 2026-09-12 of a new national hydrometeorological bulletin with municipality-level drought or fire-risk maps Ministry of Mines and Energy statement on or after 2026-09-12 ordering hydropower, thermal backup, or demand-management contingency measures National Unit for Disaster Risk Management activation on or after 2026-09-12 of a formal wildfire or water-scarcity preparedness protocol for departments XM or CREG release on or after 2026-09-12 showing reserve-margin, reservoir, or reliability-rule adjustments tied to El Niño conditions
Sources
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