• BR·Macroeconomics+1
    Federal Government launches Desenrola 2.0 program
    Recent#26Active 9h2 updatesUpdated 9h ago
    Latest update·9h ago

    The government of Brazil announced a new policy allowing citizens to access funds in their FGTS accounts to pay off personal debt, with the condition that participants block access to online gambling platforms.

    What happened

    Desenrola 2.0 was unveiled, enabling citizens to use a portion of their FGTS for debt repayment, on condition of blocking online betting platform access.

    Why it matters

    This policy could reduce household debt levels and spur consumer spending, potentially boosting economic growth.

    Watch for

    Watch for reactions from financial institutions and betting platforms, as well as early indicators of consumer spending changes in the coming weeks.

    Decision context
    Brazilian Ministry of Finance
    Set regulatory framework for program implementation
    ImmediatePending
    Possible outcomes
    Limited uptake of the program
    40%·Short-term
    Debt levels decrease significantly
    60%·Short-term
  • BR·Energy Resources+2
    Iran Claims Strike on U.S. Warship, U.S. Denies Incident in Strait of Hormuz
    Recent#27Active 9h1 updateUpdated 9h ago
    What happened

    Iran announced a strike on a U.S. warship in the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. denied any such incident, adding to regional tensions.

    Why it matters

    This development could increase tensions between Iran and the U.S., complicate diplomacy in the Middle East, and threaten maritime security in the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

    Watch for

    Watch for official responses or military movements from the U.S. Department of Defense and potential diplomatic engagements or calls for restraint from international bodies in the coming days.

    Decision context
    U.S. State Department and Allies
    Diplomatic Engagement Strategy
    ImmediatePending
    Possible outcomes
    Escalation to Military Conflict
    35%·Immediate
    Increased Security Measures in Strait of Hormuz
    65%·Short-term
  • BR·Environment Climate+1
    Federal teams deployed to respond to lethal floods in Paraíba and Pernambuco
    Recent#28Active 2d4 updatesUpdated 9h agoEmerging
    Latest update·9h ago

    Pernambuco declared a state of emergency in 27 municipalities due to heavy rains that resulted in six fatalities. This situation intensifies the need for federal intervention to improve climate resilience and disaster response planning.

    Δ State of emergency declared due to new deaths and extreme weather.

    What happened

    Heavy rains have caused fatalities and mass displacement in Paraíba and Pernambuco, prompting federal intervention for emergency response.

    Why it matters

    The immediate and effective response is crucial to minimize further loss of life and address the needs of displaced populations, impacting regional stability and resource allocation.

    Watch for

    Watch for updates from federal and state authorities on the situation and further deployments or aid announcements in the next 48 hours.

    Decision context
    Brazilian Federal Government
    Federal deployment scale-up decision
    ImmediateIn Progress
    Possible outcomes
    Insufficient response leads to further displacement and health risks
    50%·Short-term
    Successful federal response reduces further casualties
    55%·Short-term
  • AR·Finance+1
    ANSES announces May increase in child and family allowances
    Recent#29Active 6d2 updatesUpdated 9h agoCooling
    Latest update·9h ago

    ANSES has announced a 3.38% increase in pensions and family allowances for May 2026, following inflation data from March. The minimum pension will increase to $393,174.10, with an additional $70,000 bonus for those receiving the minimum benefit.

    Δ New figures for pension and allowances increase announced.

    What happened

    ANSES announced a 3.4% increase in family-related allowances to be implemented in May 2023.

    Why it matters

    Adjustments to social security measures indicate direct government intervention to counter inflationary pressures on vulnerable families, reflecting the urgency to support economic stability.

    Watch for

    Watch for subsequent announcements from the Argentine government about further fiscal measures to combat inflation, and reactions from affected families or opposition parties.

    Decision context
    ANSES
    Further inflations adjustments by ANSES
    Medium-termAnnounced
    Possible outcomes
    Inflationary pressures persist
    35%·Medium-term
    Inflation offset successfully
    65%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact40Low Risk30Medium Signal42Cooling 26.6/d4 threshold jumpsPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • AR·Geopolitics+1
    Argentine Government Closes Casa Rosada to Press Amid Espionage Allegations
    Recent#30Active 9d3 updatesUpdated 9h agoCooling
    Latest update·9h ago

    President Javier Milei has reinstated press access to the Casa Rosada, implementing new security measures. However, major networks Todo Noticias and Channel 13 remain barred. This step comes after criticism from lawmakers and press freedom advocates.

    Δ Press access reinstatement with new security measures while barring specific networks.

    What happened

    The Argentine government closed the Casa Rosada to the press, claiming national security concerns in response to allegations of illegal espionage involving journalists.

    Why it matters

    This move has implications for press freedom and transparency in Argentina, potentially escalating tensions between the government and media organizations both domestically and internationally.

    Watch for

    Watch for responses from international press freedom organizations, potential legal actions by journalists, and any further clarification or actions from the Argentine government in the next 24-72 hours.

    Decision context
    Argentine Executive
    Policy on Press Access Reassessment
    Short-termResolved
    Possible outcomes
    Escalation of Government-Media Tensions
    85%·Medium-term
    Increased Press Freedom Scrutiny
    60%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact50Medium Risk60Medium Signal44Cooling 9.8/d2 threshold jumpsSecurity RiskGeopoliticsConflict & Security RiskGeopolitical Pressure
  • NG·Finance+2
    Naira Depreciates Against USD in Official Market
    Recent#31Active 3w13 updatesUpdated 13h agoCooling
    Latest update·13h ago

    The Nigerian naira appreciated to N1,367.5 per US dollar on May 4, 2026, reflecting continued gains and improved market stability despite global currency pressures. The Central Bank of Nigeria indicates reduced volatility in the forex market.

    Δ Naira appreciation and reduced market volatility.

    What happened

    The Naira depreciated by at least ₦5 against the US Dollar in the official market, while the parallel market rate remained stable.

    Why it matters

    This development reflects mounting pressure on Nigeria's foreign exchange reserves and highlights potential challenges in maintaining economic stability amid disparities between market exchange rates.

    Watch for

    Watch for potential policy responses from the Central Bank of Nigeria and any government statements regarding measures to address exchange rate disparities.

    Decision context
    Central Bank of Nigeria
    Central Bank Intervention
    ImmediateIn Progress
    Possible outcomes
    Further Depreciation
    45%·Short-term
    Naira Stabilizes
    60%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact50Medium Risk55Low Signal30Cooling 13.3/d9 threshold jumpsMarketsMacroeconomicsFinanceMarket & Economic Stress
  • NGZA·Geopolitics+2
    Nigeria Summons South African Diplomat Over Anti-Foreigner Protests
    Recent#32Active 2d4 updatesUpdated 13h agoEmerging
    Latest update·13h ago

    Nigeria's Foreign Minister announced the repatriation of 130 Nigerians from South Africa due to anti-immigration protests. The Nigerian government has demanded an investigation into the deaths of two Nigerians and received commitment from South Africa to tackle xenophobia.

    Δ New development with the repatriation and demand for investigation.

    What happened

    The Nigerian government summoned South Africa’s Acting High Commissioner due to recent anti-foreigner protests and reported attacks on Nigerians in South Africa.

    Why it matters

    This diplomatic engagement highlights the potential for strained bilateral relations and its economic and political implications between Nigeria and South Africa, two major economies in Africa.

    Watch for

    Watch for outcomes from the scheduled meeting between Nigeria and South Africa on May 4, 2026, and any subsequent actions or statements from either government regarding their bilateral relations.

    Decision context
    Government of Nigeria and South Africa
    Diplomatic Engagement Outcome
    2d agoIn Progress
    Possible outcomes
    Increased Diplomatic Tensions
    60%·Short-term
    Improved Diplomatic Relations
    40%·Short-term
  • GB·Macroeconomics+1
    Bank of England Maintains Interest Rates Amid Inflation Concerns
    Recent#33Active 13h1 updateUpdated 13h ago
    What happened

    The Bank of England decided to maintain its current interest rates while highlighting inflation risks related to the conflict in Iran.

    Why it matters

    This decision potentially stabilizes the UK economy by curbing further inflationary pressures while responding to geopolitical tensions, impacting both domestic and international markets.

    Watch for

    Watch for Bank of England's next policy meeting and updates on the Iranian conflict's impact on global oil prices, scheduled in the coming weeks.

    Decision context
    Bank of England
    Future Interest Rate Adjustment
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Inflation Escalates Uncontrolled
    50%·Medium-term
    UK Economy Stabilizes Amid Global Tensions
    60%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact50Medium Risk40MacroeconomicsMarketsMarket & Economic Stress
  • PL·Geopolitics+1
    Poland and UK announce bilateral defense cooperation treaty
    Recent#34Active 14h1 updateUpdated 14h ago
    What happened

    Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the signing of a new bilateral treaty focusing on defense cooperation.

    Why it matters

    The treaty will significantly strengthen defense ties between Poland and the UK, potentially impacting regional security dynamics and international defense partnerships.

    Watch for

    Watch for the signing of the treaty on May 27, which will mark the formalization of the defense agreement between Poland and the UK.

    Decision context
    Govt of Poland and UK
    Signatory approvals for treaty finalization
    ImmediatePending
    Possible outcomes
    Potential geopolitical tension with Russia
    50%·Medium-term
    Strengthened Poland-UK defense alliance
    70%·Short-term
  • EU·Energy Resources+2
    EU-Armenia Summit commences in Yerevan focusing on regional security and bilateral relations
    Recent#35Active 14h1 updateUpdated 14h ago
    What happened

    The inaugural EU-Armenia Summit took place, featuring discussions to strengthen cooperation in various sectors and address regional security concerns.

    Why it matters

    This summit marks a significant step in EU's efforts to deepen its strategic engagement in the Caucasus region, which could influence broader geopolitical dynamics, including energy security and regional stability.

    Watch for

    Watch for statements from the EU and Armenian representatives on agreed initiatives and any follow-up meetings that may be scheduled in the next 24-72 hours.

    Decision context
    European Union and Armenian Government
    Follow-up policy agreements
    Jun 30, 2026Pending
    Possible outcomes
    Increased geopolitical tensions
    30%·Short-term
    Strengthened EU-Armenia relations
    70%·Medium-term
  • DE·Business+1
    German Pilot Union Criticizes Airlines in Pay Dispute
    Recent#36Active 14h1 updateUpdated 14h ago
    What happened

    Vereinigung Cockpit, a German pilot union, accused major airlines of setting preconditions that hinder independent arbitration, exacerbating ongoing pay disputes.

    Why it matters

    A breakdown in negotiations could lead to strikes that would disrupt air travel during a high-demand period, impacting logistics and economic activities relying on air transport.

    Watch for

    Watch for announcements from Vereinigung Cockpit and major airlines regarding any progress in negotiations or decisions to escalate actions in the coming days.

    Decision context
    Lufthansa, Eurowings, and other airlines
    Airlines' decision on arbitration participation
    ImmediatePending
    Possible outcomes
    Industrial action during peak travel season
    50%·Immediate
    Successful arbitration resolves dispute
    40%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact40Medium Risk60BusinessTrade SupplyGeopolitical Pressure
  • DE·Security Risk
    Suspected Deliberate Vehicle Ramming in Leipzig Results in Two Deaths
    Recent#37Active 14h1 updateUpdated 14h ago
    What happened

    A 33-year-old German citizen drove into pedestrians in Leipzig, resulting in two fatalities. The driver was arrested, and authorities are investigating the event as a potential deliberate attack.

    Why it matters

    This incident highlights ongoing security vulnerabilities in urban centers and potential threats to public safety. It necessitates immediate responses from law enforcement to assess and mitigate further risks.

    Watch for

    Watch for further updates from German law enforcement regarding the motive of the suspect and potential changes in domestic security policies.

    Decision context
    German Federal Police
    Security Policy Review
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Further attacks or copycat incidents
    40%·Medium-term
    Increased security measures implemented
    60%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact50High Risk70Security RiskConflict & Security Risk
  • RUUA·Geopolitics+1
    Russia Declares Ceasefire in Ukraine for Victory Day
    Recent#38Active 15h2 updatesUpdated 15h ago
    Latest update·15h ago

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a unilateral ceasefire starting May 6, 2026, to de-escalate tensions and promote diplomatic talks with Russia.

    Δ Ukrainian ceasefire announcement adds a new layer to the ceasefire efforts initially declared by Russia.

    What happened

    Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine for May 8-9. Ukraine responded, agreeing to start on May 6 if Russia complies.

    Why it matters

    This temporary ceasefire could ease tensions, marking a potential pause in hostilities between Russia and Ukraine during commemorative events.

    Watch for

    Watch for statements from the Russian and Ukrainian governments on May 6 to confirm compliance with the ceasefire and any military activity that may affect the truce.

    Decision context
    Ukrainian Government
    Confirm Ceasefire Participation
    TodayPending
    Confirm Ceasefire Participation (by Ukrainian Government)
    Resolved
    Possible outcomes
    Ceasefire breakdown and resumption of hostilities
    45%·Immediate
    Successful implementation of ceasefire
    55%·Immediate
  • IR·Macroeconomics+2
    Price Shock in Agricultural Fertilizers Following Subsidy Removal
    Recent#39Active 15h1 updateUpdated 15h ago
    What happened

    The removal of government subsidies on May 7th has led to a dramatic increase in the prices of chemical fertilizers in Iran.

    Why it matters

    This development could severely impact the agricultural sector, potentially leading to higher food prices and affecting the country's export capabilities.

    Watch for

    Watch for government response or potential policy measures to address the agricultural sector's challenges over the next few days.

    Decision context
    Iranian Government
    Consider reintroduction of fertilizer subsidies
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Increased agricultural production costs lead to higher food prices
    70%·Short-term
    Government introduces new subsidies to stabilize fertilizer prices
    50%·Short-term
  • IL·Geopolitics+2
    Israel Approves Acquisition of New Fighter Jets
    Recent#40Active 15h1 updateUpdated 15h ago
    What happened

    Israel approved purchases of F-35I and F-15IA fighters, worth tens of billions of shekels, as part of its long-term defense strategy.

    Why it matters

    This acquisition strengthens Israel's military capabilities, reinforcing its strategic position in the region and influencing global arms trade dynamics with major American contractors.

    Watch for

    Watch for detailed contract announcements from Lockheed Martin and Boeing, as well as further clarity on budget allocations in the upcoming weeks.

    Decision context
    Israeli Ministry of Defense
    Final Contract Negotiations with Vendors
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Budgetary Strain and Delays
    30%·Long-term
    Enhanced Military Deterrence
    70%·Long-term
  • IL·Geopolitics+1
    IDF Conducts Airstrike on Hezbollah Target in Southern Lebanon
    Recent#41Active 5d2 updatesUpdated 15h ago
    Latest update·15h ago

    The IDF conducted a targeted operation in southern Lebanon, seizing a significant cache of weapons from a Hezbollah site. Rocket launchers aimed at IDF soldiers were also neutralized during the raid.

    Δ The update provides new information about the IDF seizing weapons and neutralizing threats directly aimed at Israeli forces, marking an operational success.

    What happened

    The IDF carried out an airstrike in southern Lebanon targeting a concealed Hezbollah rocket launcher, also killing a Hezbollah operative.

    Why it matters

    This event underscores the delicate security dynamics in the region, potentially impacting larger geopolitical stability in the Middle East.

    Watch for

    Watch for official responses from Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, potential retaliatory actions, and statements from international mediators in the next 24-72 hours.

    Decision context
    Israeli Defense Ministry
    Israeli Response Strategy
    Short-termIn Progress
    Possible outcomes
    Escalation of Hostilities
    55%·Short-term
    Increased Israeli Deterrence
    45%·Immediate
    ActiveMedium Impact50Medium Risk60Low Signal37Cooling 21.3/d3 threshold jumpsGeopoliticsSecurity RiskConflict & Security RiskGeopolitical Pressure
  • EG·Macroeconomics
    Ministry of Labor Announces 2,600 New Job Opportunities
    Recent#42Active 15h1 updateUpdated 15h ago
    What happened

    The Ministry of Labor has revealed that a major contracting company will be offering 2,600 job opportunities, an initiative to decrease unemployment rates and boost economic activity.

    Why it matters

    This announcement directly impacts unemployment figures and can lead to a more robust economic environment by creating new jobs and reducing the current unemployment rate.

    Watch for

    Watch for updates on the recruitment process and the actual uptake of these job opportunities over the coming weeks.

    Possible outcomes
    Limited impact due to implementation challenges
    30%·Short-term
    Successful employment of 2,600 workers
    70%·Short-term
  • EG·Energy Resources+1
    Steam Turbine Condenser Arrives for El-Dabaa Nuclear Plant
    Recent#43Active 15h1 updateUpdated 15h ago
    What happened

    The steam turbine condenser for Egypt's El-Dabaa nuclear plant arrived from South Korea, indicating progress in the plant's construction.

    Why it matters

    As a critical step in the development of Egypt's nuclear energy capacity, this development underscores the country's commitment to diversifying its energy resources, potentially impacting regional energy security dynamics.

    Watch for

    Watch for further deliveries and construction milestones at the El-Dabaa site in the coming days, as well as any official statements regarding project timelines or international cooperation details.

    Decision context
    Nuclear Power Plants Authority
    Approval of Next Phase in Construction
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Construction Delays Due to Logistical Issues
    30%·Short-term
    Project Advances Without Delays
    70%·Medium-term
  • PK·Finance+2
    State Bank of Pakistan injects Rs4.6 trillion into banking system
    Recent#44Active 17h1 updateUpdated 17h ago
    What happened

    The State Bank of Pakistan conducted significant open market operations to inject liquidity, providing Rs4.6 trillion to ease financial pressures in the banking sector.

    Why it matters

    Such large-scale liquidity injections can stabilize financial markets in the short term, affect monetary policy settings, and influence interest rates and inflation perceptions globally.

    Watch for

    Watch for follow-up actions by the State Bank on adjusting interest rates and potential impacts on inflation rates in the coming weeks.

    Decision context
    State Bank of Pakistan
    State Bank interest rate adjustment
    in 25dPending
    Possible outcomes
    Inflationary pressures increase
    50%·Medium-term
    Stabilization of the banking sector
    70%·Short-term
  • PK·Geopolitics+1
    Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of deadly cross-border attacks
    Recent#45Active 17h1 updateUpdated 17h ago
    What happened

    On May 4, 2026, Afghanistan accused Pakistan of launching cross-border attacks into its Kunar province, leading to civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.

    Why it matters

    The accusations and ensuing denials escalate tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, impacting regional stability and raising concerns of potential military confrontations.

    Watch for

    Watch for official responses from both Afghan and Pakistani government officials, any calls for international mediation, and potential military movements in the border regions in the next 48-72 hours.

    Decision context
    Pakistani Foreign Ministry
    Diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan
    in 4dPending
    Possible outcomes
    Escalation to military confrontation
    60%·Short-term
    Diplomatic resolution and de-escalation
    40%·Short-term
  • AEPK·Markets+2
    Pakistan Stock Index Surges 4.5% Amid Middle East Optimism
    Recent#46Active 4w6 updatesUpdated 17h agoCooling
    Latest update·17h ago

    The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) saw a substantial rally with the KSE-100 index rising over 4,000 points due to improved investor sentiment amid Iran-U.S. tensions and efforts to stabilize global energy routes.

    Δ Significant intraday surge of over 4,000 points in the KSE-100 index.

    What happened

    Pakistan's stock market index increased by over 4.5% as investors reacted positively to potential geopolitical stability and favorable oil price trends.

    Why it matters

    The substantial gain in the stock index reflects investor optimism about regional stability, which can lead to increased investment flows and economic activity.

    Watch for

    Watch for further announcements regarding Middle East geopolitics and any significant changes in global oil prices that could impact market trends.

    Possible outcomes
    Market Correction Risk
    20%·Short-term
    Continued Index Growth
    80%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact60Medium Risk55Low Signal30Cooling 18.2/d10 threshold jumpsMarketsGeopoliticsEnergy ResourcesMarket & Economic StressEnvironment & Planetary Systems
  • IN·Science Biosecurity
    Union Health Ministry launches framework for childhood diabetes management
    Recent#47Active 17h1 updateUpdated 17h ago
    What happened

    The Union Health Ministry announced a new initiative to manage childhood diabetes through comprehensive screening and treatment programs.

    Why it matters

    This initiative could significantly improve diabetes management and care for children in India, reducing long-term health costs and improving quality of life.

    Watch for

    Watch for the implementation details from state health departments and any feedback from healthcare providers in the next few days.

    Decision context
    State Health Departments
    Implementation Strategy Development
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Implementation Challenges in Rural Areas
    50%·Medium-term
    Successful Implementation Improves Children's Health
    70%·Medium-term
    ActiveMedium Impact40Low Risk30Science BiosecurityScience Biosecurity
  • TH·Environment Climate+2
    Thailand Forms Committee to Reassess Southern Land Bridge Project
    Recent#48Active 19h1 updateUpdated 19h ago
    What happened

    A new committee has been established to reassess the Land Bridge project in southern Thailand following public opposition.

    Why it matters

    This development could influence infrastructure planning and investment in Thailand, impacting economic growth strategies in the region.

    Watch for

    Watch for the committee's initial findings and recommendations within the next two months, which will influence the project's future.

    Decision context
    Committee formed by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul
    Committee Evaluation of Land Bridge Project
    Medium-termIn Progress
    Possible outcomes
    Project Proceeding with Minimal Changes
    50%·Short-term
    Project Adjusted or Abandoned
    50%·Short-term
  • ID·Environment Climate
    BMKG Issues High Wave Warning for Indonesian Waters
    Recent#49Active 10d5 updatesUpdated 19h agoEscalating
    Latest update·19h ago

    BMKG forecasts moderate to heavy rainfall, lightning, and strong winds in several Indonesian regions on May 4–5, 2026, influenced by atmospheric wave activities. Regions like Aceh and North Sumatra are expected to be impacted.

    Δ New weather forecast detailing specific conditions and regions affected due to atmospheric phenomena.

    What happened

    BMKG announced a warning for high waves in Indonesian waters from April 24-27, with waves potentially reaching up to 4 meters in height due to rapid wind speeds in several regions.

    Why it matters

    This warning is critical for maritime activities and coastal communities in Indonesia, impacting shipping, fishing industries, and potentially endangering lives and property.

    Watch for

    Watch for updates from BMKG and local disaster management agencies in the next 72 hours to assess changes in the wave conditions and any emergency response measures implemented.

    Decision context
    Local Disaster Management Agencies
    Implement Coastal Safety Measures
    12d agoIn Progress
    Implement Coastal Safety Measures (by Local Disaster Management Agencies)
    In Progress
    Possible outcomes
    Severe Disruption and Damage
    60%·Short-term
    Effective Mitigation Measures
    65%·Immediate
    ActiveMedium Impact40Medium Risk50Medium Signal41Rising 8.3/d3 threshold jumpsEnvironment ClimateEnvironment & Planetary Systems
  • TW·Geopolitics+1
    President Lai Ching-te's Eswatini visit postponed due to Chinese pressure
    Recent#50Active 9d4 updatesUpdated 20h ago
    Latest update·20h ago

    President Lai Ching-te successfully arrived in Eswatini for a state visit on May 2, 2026, which had been previously postponed due to Chinese diplomatic pressure. The visit demonstrates Taiwan's resilience in maintaining international engagement despite external challenges.

    Δ Timeline change with the successful completion of the postponed visit.

    What happened

    The planned visit of President Lai Ching-te to Eswatini was called off after Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar rescinded their flight permits, following reported economic coercion by China.

    Why it matters

    This incident underscores the extent of China's diplomatic reach and its potential to influence sovereign states' decisions, affecting cross-national relationships and regional stability.

    Watch for

    Watch for Taiwan's diplomatic responses or adjustments to its flight plans in the next few days, as well as any official statements from Chinese authorities regarding the incident.

    Decision context
    Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs
    Taiwan's diplomatic response strategy
    Short-termResolved
    pending
    Resolved
    Possible outcomes
    Increased regional tensions
    65%·Short-term
    Improved diplomatic dialogue
    65%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact50Medium Risk60Medium Signal565 threshold jumpsGeopoliticsSecurity RiskConflict & Security RiskGeopolitical Pressure
offset 25 • limit 25