• RU·Finance+2
    Central Bank of Russia raises 2026 inflation forecast
    Recent#51Active 2mo9 updatesUpdated 5d ago
    What happened

    The Central Bank of Russia adjusted its inflation forecast for 2026, increasing its estimates.

    Why it matters

    The updated forecast signals potential changes in monetary policy to address inflation concerns, affecting economic stability and planning.

    Watch for

    Monitor any announcements or adjustments in interest rates or monetary policy from the Central Bank in response to the new forecast.

    Decision context
    Central Bank of Russia
    Adjust monetary policy
    47d agoResolved
    Adjust monetary policy (by Central Bank of Russia)
    Resolved
    ActiveHigh Impact80High Risk70Low Signal25Cooling 24.0/d10 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • AU·Geopolitics+2
    Australia Proposes 2.25% Levy on Tech Giants to Fund Local Journalism
    Recent#52Active 6d2 updatesUpdated 5d ago
    What happened

    Australia announced a draft plan to impose a 2.25% levy on the revenues of major tech companies operating in the country. The funds from this levy would be directed towards sustaining and developing Australian news media.

    Why it matters

    This levy could set a precedent for how countries ensure local content sustainability against the backdrop of global tech monopolies, potentially influencing international policies.

    Watch for

    Watch for responses or potential legal actions from tech companies and the timeline for parliamentary debate and voting on this proposal.

    Decision context
    Australian Parliament
    Parliamentary Approval of the Levy
    Short-termIn Progress
    Possible outcomes
    Potential backlash from tech companies
    40%·Short-term
    Levy leads to increased funding for local journalism
    60%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact50Medium Risk45Low Signal39Cooling 21.3/d3 threshold jumpsGeopoliticsTechnologyPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressGeopolitical Pressure
  • AU·Macroeconomics+1
    Australian headline CPI steady at 3.8% for January
    Recent#53Active 2mo2 updatesUpdated 5d ago
    What happened

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics released CPI data for January showing headline inflation at 3.8% and underlying inflation at 3.4%.

    Why it matters

    The higher-than-expected inflation figures increase the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia might implement a rate hike to control inflation, impacting borrowing costs and economic growth.

    Watch for

    Announcements or signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia regarding interest rate changes.

    Decision context
    Reserve Bank of Australia
    Interest rate decision
    Medium-termPending
    ActiveHigh Impact75High Risk70Low Signal39Cooling 23.2/d4 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • CO·Macroeconomics+1
    Colombian Council of State Suspends Part of Pension Decree
    Recent#54Active 6d1 updateUpdated 6d agoCooling
    What happened

    On April 29, 2026, the Colombian Council of State decided to suspend parts of a decree by President Petro, which planned substantial financial transfers to the public pension fund, Colpensiones.

    Why it matters

    This development disrupts the administration's planned pension reform, potentially impacting long-term fiscal stability and future social welfare programs in Colombia.

    Watch for

    Watch for further legal proceedings or rulings on the decree and any responses or alternative strategies announced by President Petro or the Colombian government.

    Decision context
    President Gustavo Petro
    Government response to Council's suspension
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Prolonged legal and political uncertainty
    50%·Short-term
    Pension reform advances under revised terms
    50%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact45Medium Risk60Medium Signal42Cooling 31.1/d4 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • AR·Macroeconomics+1
    Argentina announces updated pension amounts and bonus for retirees
    Recent#55Active 6d1 updateUpdated 6d agoCooling
    What happened

    ANSES released new pension amounts and an additional bonus for retirees to help them cope with economic difficulties.

    Why it matters

    This measure is crucial for protecting the welfare of the elderly population in Argentina and maintaining social stability amid economic volatility.

    Watch for

    Watch for the government's announcement regarding further fiscal measures to address economic instability and inflation in the next few weeks.

    Decision context
    Government of Argentina
    Approval of additional fiscal measures
    Medium-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Pension adjustments strain national budget further
    60%·Medium-term
    Pension adjustments ease economic burden on retirees
    70%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact45Low Risk35Medium Signal42Cooling 27.8/d4 threshold jumpsPublic FinanceMacroeconomicsMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • AR·Macroeconomics+1
    Government Confirms Extraordinary Bonus for Pensioners
    Recent#56Active 6d1 updateUpdated 6d agoCooling
    What happened

    The government officially confirmed the payment of an additional financial bonus for retirees, set to be distributed next month.

    Why it matters

    This initiative is crucial for supporting the purchasing power of retirees, a demographic particularly affected by inflation and rising living costs.

    Watch for

    Watch for further announcements from the Ministry of Finance regarding the implementation details and any potential fiscal impacts.

    Decision context
    Ministry of Finance
    Finalize bonus distribution plan
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Strain on government fiscal resources
    60%·Medium-term
    Increase in pensioners' consumer spending
    70%·Short-term
    ActiveLow Impact35Medium Risk40Medium Signal42Cooling 27.2/d4 threshold jumpsPublic FinanceMacroeconomicsMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • ZA·Public Finance+1
    SA withdraws Draft AI Policy due to fictitious sources
    Recent#57Active 7d2 updatesUpdated 6d agoCooling
    What happened

    The South African government withdrew its Draft National AI Policy following the discovery of fake AI-generated references within the document.

    Why it matters

    This incident calls into question the integrity and reliability of governmental policy processes globally, particularly in the digital space, where accuracy is paramount to forming trust and effective regulations.

    Watch for

    Watch for a revised version of the AI policy as the Ministry works to address verification issues. Monitor for public and sector responses to maintain trust.

    Decision context
    South African Communications and Digital Technologies Ministry
    Revise and reissue the AI policy
    Medium-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Erosion of trust in government policy
    45%·Medium-term
    Improved policy drafting processes
    60%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact40Medium Risk45Medium Signal44Cooling 16.4/d3 threshold jumpsTechnologyPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressTechnology Inflection
  • PL·Finance+2
    Poland reports Q1 2026 budget surplus due to strong revenues
    Recent#58Active 3w3 updatesUpdated 6d agoCooling
    What happened

    The Polish Ministry of Finance released data indicating a budget surplus for Q1 2026, driven by increased tax revenues and controlled spending.

    Why it matters

    This announcement signals a strong economic position, potentially allowing more flexibility in fiscal and monetary policies which is crucial for economic stability and growth.

    Watch for

    Watch for remarks or policy changes from the Polish Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Poland concerning monetary policy in response to the surplus, within the next 72 hours.

    Decision context
    National Bank of Poland
    Adjustment in monetary policy
    Short-termPending
    Adjustment in monetary policy (by National Bank of Poland)
    Pending
    Possible outcomes
    Increased expectation for fiscal responsibility
    55%·Medium-term
    Improved fiscal policy and economic growth
    65%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact60Medium Risk50Medium Signal46Cooling 30.7/d10 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceFinanceMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • IN·Finance+3
    Finance Minister forms panel to assess AI risks of 'Mythos' platform
    Recent#59Active 6d4 updatesUpdated 6d agoCooling
    What happened

    A high-level panel was constituted by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to assess the interconnected risks of the AI platform 'Mythos'.

    Why it matters

    The formation of this panel underscores the increasing importance of assessing AI's impact on financial systems and regulatory frameworks globally.

    Watch for

    Watch for initial reports or findings from the panel which may indicate regulatory changes within 2-3 months.

    Decision context
    High-level panel on AI risks
    AI risk assessment report submission
    Medium-termIn Progress
    Possible outcomes
    Regulatory challenges for fintech firms
    40%·Short-term
    Enhanced AI governance framework
    60%·Short-term
    ActiveLow Impact35Medium Risk40Low Signal28Cooling 20.4/d3 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsTechnologyFinanceTechnology InflectionPolicy & Governance Motion
  • TH·Macroeconomics+1
    Thai Cabinet approves 1.16 billion baht for World Bank and IMF meetings
    Recent#60Active 6d1 updateUpdated 6d agoCooling
    What happened

    The Thai Cabinet announced its approval of a 1.16 billion baht budget allocation for the 2026 Annual Meetings of the World Bank and the IMF.

    Why it matters

    Hosting these significant international meetings highlights Thailand's role and visibility on the global stage, potentially boosting its global image, attracting international investment, and increasing tourism.

    Watch for

    Watch for detailed planning announcements and progress updates in the lead-up to the October 2026 event, as well as any infrastructure enhancements or contracts awarded related to the preparations.

    Decision context
    Thai government
    Finalize contracts for venue and infrastructure
    Sep 1, 2026Pending
    Possible outcomes
    Preparation Delays Hampers Reputation
    30%·Medium-term
    Successful Event Boosts Economy
    70%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact40Low Risk25Medium Signal42Cooling 23.7/d4 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • TH·Macroeconomics+3
    Thailand reports unexpected early slowdown in tourism
    Recent#61Active 8d2 updatesUpdated 6d agoCooling
    What happened

    During April 13–19, 2026, Thailand hosted 464,720 foreign travelers, marking a significant decrease in tourism numbers compared to previous periods.

    Why it matters

    The tourism sector is vital for Thailand's economy, significantly contributing to GDP, employment, and foreign exchange earnings. A decline in tourist arrivals can impact economic growth and fiscal stability.

    Watch for

    Watch for responses from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports and potential policy adjustments to stimulate tourism in the coming weeks.

    Decision context
    Ministry of Tourism and Sports
    Implement tourism stimulus package
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Prolonged tourism decline worsens economic forecasts
    45%·Medium-term
    Tourism sector recovers due to targeted marketing campaigns
    60%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact50Medium Risk45Medium Signal44Cooling 12.0/d2 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceTrade SupplyMarket & Economic StressGeopolitical Pressure
  • IL·Geopolitics+3
    Israeli Finance Ministry: War with Iran costs reach 35 billion shekels
    Recent#62Active 3w28 updatesUpdated 28 Apr 2026 @ 7:22 PMCooling
    What happened

    The Israeli Finance Ministry disclosed the financial burden of the ongoing war with Iran, quantified at 35 billion shekels. The report encompasses security measures and compensations necessary due to the conflict.

    Why it matters

    The financial revelation signifies an intense economic strain on Israel's budget, potentially impacting other domestic financial commitments and priorities.

    Watch for

    Watch for possible escalations in conflict or new security incidents that could further increase costs and necessitate additional government expenditure.

    Decision context
    Israeli Finance Minister
    Budget reallocation to address war costs
    Short-termIn Progress
    Possible outcomes
    Escalation increases financial burden
    97%·Short-term
    Cost mitigation through ceasefire
    42%·Medium-term
    ActiveHigh Impact70High Risk70Low Signal30Cooling 11.7/d5 threshold jumpsGeopoliticsPublic FinanceSecurity RiskMarket & Economic StressConflict & Security Risk
  • CA·Finance+2
    Bank of Canada holds interest rate steady amid stable inflation
    Recent#63Active 7w5 updatesUpdated 28 Apr 2026 @ 1:01 PMCooling
    What happened

    The Bank of Canada decided to keep its interest rate unchanged.

    Why it matters

    Interest rate decisions can significantly impact economic activity, influencing borrowing costs and consumer spending, which are crucial for economic stability.

    Watch for

    Reactions from financial markets and economic forecasts over the next few days.

    Decision context
    Interest Rate Decision
    Pending
    Possible outcomes
    External shocks necessitate rate adjustment
    35%·Short-term
    Economic stability is maintained
    75%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact60Medium Risk40Medium Signal50Cooling 12.9/d10 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsFinancePublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • AR·Macroeconomics+2
    Government Announces 'Ajustazo' Fiscal Adjustment Plan
    Recent#64Active 7d1 updateUpdated 28 Apr 2026 @ 12:01 PMCooling
    What happened

    The government introduced a fiscal plan named 'Ajustazo' with increased tariffs and new taxes announced to address economic challenges.

    Why it matters

    The implementation of such fiscal policies can lead to broad economic consequences, affecting growth, inflation, and social stability, potentially impacting foreign investment and international relations.

    Watch for

    Watch for public reactions and potential protests in the next week, as well as statements from opposition parties and economic analysts.

    Decision context
    Government of Argentina
    Monitor and manage public response to Ajustazo
    ImmediatePending
    Possible outcomes
    Social unrest and economic contraction
    60%·Immediate
    Stabilized economy with controlled inflation
    40%·Medium-term
    ActiveMedium Impact65Medium Risk60Medium Signal42Cooling 21.2/d4 threshold jumpsPublic FinanceMacroeconomicsSecurity RiskMarket & Economic StressConflict & Security Risk
  • NG·Macroeconomics+1
    DMO Announces ₦700 Billion Federal Government Bond Auction
    Recent#65Active 7d1 updateUpdated 28 Apr 2026 @ 8:03 AMCooling
    What happened

    The DMO announced on April 27, 2026, its intention to raise ₦700 billion via a bond auction.

    Why it matters

    This auction is critical for Nigeria's fiscal policy as it addresses budgetary shortfalls and sustains government spending, impacting economic stability.

    Watch for

    Watch for outcomes of the bond auction process on April 29, 2026, and subsequent financial market reactions.

    Decision context
    Debt Management Office
    Settle Bond Auction
    7d agoPending
    Possible outcomes
    Auction Falls Short
    30%·Short-term
    Successful Bond Auction
    70%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact40Medium Risk40Medium Signal42Cooling 17.3/d4 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • FR·Geopolitics+4
    French PM Lecornu announces €6 billion cost due to US-Israeli war impact
    Recent#66Active 13d8 updatesUpdated 28 Apr 2026 @ 7:02 AMCooling
    What happened

    Prime Minister Lecornu announced budgetary adjustments in response to the US-Israeli war in Iran, highlighting significant economic impacts, including a freeze on spending and increased defense expenditures.

    Why it matters

    The fiscal changes indicate a significant strain on France's budget due to geopolitical developments, potentially affecting economic growth and inflation on a global scale.

    Watch for

    Watch for a reassessment of budget measures in June, potential geopolitical developments, and further economic announcements from the French government.

    Decision context
    French government
    Budget reassessment decision
    Jun 30, 2026In Progress
    Possible outcomes
    Economic fallout from geopolitical tensions
    80%·Short-term
    Budgetary constraints effectively managed
    25%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact60Medium Risk65Low Signal30Cooling 10.2/d4 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsGeopoliticsPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressConflict & Security Risk
  • PK·Finance+2
    State Bank of Pakistan raises interest rate by 50 basis points
    Recent#67Active 7d1 updateUpdated 28 Apr 2026 @ 4:02 AMCooling
    What happened

    The State Bank of Pakistan increased its interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%.

    Why it matters

    Interest rate hikes are crucial tools in controlling inflation, affecting borrowing costs, consumer spending, and investment. This decision signals a proactive stance by Pakistan's central bank to maintain economic stability.

    Watch for

    Watch for the next inflation data release and announcements from major sectors affected by increased borrowing costs in the next 24-72 hours.

    Decision context
    State Bank of Pakistan
    Review impact of rate hike
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Economic growth slows
    40%·Medium-term
    Inflation stabilizes
    60%·Short-term
    ActiveMedium Impact50Medium Risk55Medium Signal42Cooling 18.3/d4 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsFinancePublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • TH·Geopolitics+2
    Thailand downgrades GDP growth forecasts; approves FY2027 budget
    Recent#68Active 12d3 updatesUpdated 28 Apr 2026 @ 2:01 AMCooling
    What happened

    Thailand's economic agencies announced a downgrade in GDP growth forecasts and the government approved a FY2027 budget with high public debt levels, reflecting global tensions.

    Why it matters

    The adjustments reflect significant macroeconomic challenges exacerbated by global geopolitical uncertainties. It raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and economic stability in Thailand.

    Watch for

    Watch for announcements from the Thai Finance Ministry on measures to manage the public debt within the statutory ceiling, and any responses from international markets to Thailand's updated economic forecasts.

    Decision context
    Thai Finance Ministry
    Measures to prevent exceeding debt ceiling
    Short-termPending
    Measures to prevent exceeding debt ceiling (by Thai Finance Ministry)
    Pending
    Possible outcomes
    Thailand exceeds debt ceiling, faces economic instability
    55%·Short-term
    Thailand manages fiscal policy effectively
    60%·Medium-term
    ActiveMedium Impact50Medium Risk50Medium Signal46Cooling 13.1/d5 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceGeopoliticsMarket & Economic StressGeopolitical Pressure
  • CNGB+3·Macroeconomics+1
    National Bureau of Statistics releases Q1 GDP data showing 5.2% growth
    Recent#69Active 2mo7 updatesUpdated 27 Apr 2026 @ 8:01 AMCooling
    What happened

    The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing a 5.2% GDP growth year-on-year for Q1 2026.

    Why it matters

    Surpassing market expectations, this robust GDP growth signals stronger economic recovery and may impact future policy decisions.

    Watch for

    Monetary and fiscal policy responses to strong GDP growth.

    Decision context
    Adjust Economic Stimulus Measures
    Pending
    ActiveHigh Impact70Medium Risk45Low Signal30Cooling 10.9/d10 threshold jumpsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressPolicy & Governance Motion
  • EG·Geopolitics+3
    President Al-Sisi announces $10 billion losses for Suez Canal due to regional tensions
    Recent#70Active 8d1 updateUpdated 27 Apr 2026 @ 6:01 AMCooling
    What happened

    President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi publicly declared that the Suez Canal has suffered $10 billion in losses attributed to ongoing regional tensions.

    Why it matters

    The Suez Canal is a critical global trade route, and disruptions here can significantly impact international shipping and global supply chains. Such financial losses could affect global trade dynamics and economic stability.

    Watch for

    Watch for responses from the Egyptian government and Suez Canal Authority regarding strategic measures to mitigate further losses. Monitor regional developments that could exacerbate or alleviate tensions impacting the canal.

    Decision context
    Egyptian Government
    Strategic response to Suez Canal revenue loss
    Short-termPending
    Possible outcomes
    Continued tensions lead to further losses
    70%·Medium-term
    Mitigating strategies stabilize canal revenues
    60%·Short-term
    ActiveHigh Impact70Medium Risk65Medium Signal42Cooling 15.2/d4 threshold jumpsGeopoliticsTrade SupplyPublic FinanceMarket & Economic StressConflict & Security Risk
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